GORDON Brown's decision to scrap an autumn election proves once and for all that politicians are slaves to polls.
They won't admit it, of course, but it's true. However, despite the frenzy that has greeted his decision, I can't honestly say I'm surprised as there wasn't really any appetite among ordinary people (i.e. - those who aren't politicians, their associates or journalists).
And besides, I think the claims that Brown hasn't got a mandate is incorrect.
At the last election, everyone knew that GB would be PM sooner rather than later. I even seem to remember the Tories having a slogan which went something like 'Vote Blair, get Brown'. You can't get much clearer than that.
Locally, I think the decision is a good thing for both Rosie Cooper and Adrian Owens, but for very different reasons.
With Ms Cooper, she's only been an MP here for two years which is no amount of time for anyone to make a rational assessment of how she is faring. Some will disagree with that, saying her views on the Ormskirk Bypass alone are enough to swing them one way or the other. But given her sizeable majority alone, she's got more of a mandate than her own party leader and that itself should count for something.
With Adrian Owens, an autumn election wouldn't have allowed him to continue building up the steady momentum he has been doing since being named PPC a few months ago.
On paper, the odds were stacked against him winning a snap poll for many reasons, including, (as mentioned above) Rosie Cooper's majority plus - and this is a crucial point - getting the majority of West Lancs voters to start voting Tory for the first time in 15 years.
By his own admission, his party's successive defeats here in 92, 97, 2001 and 2005 were partly down to the fact that certain parts of the district (and Skelmersdale was mentioned as a case in point) have been neglected by the Tories since their 1987 heyday.
It's possible to claw back that support - but no-one could expect Cllr Owens to do it so quickly, even if there has been a national swing to the Conservatives.
I think that privately, and on reflection both will be quite pleased with how it's panned out and will see the extra time as something which will enable them to really make the case to the people of West Lancs.
If the election had been called, I fear that both of them would have been reduced to bit-part players in an unedifying beauty contest aimed purely at massaging the egos of the two national party leaders.
For once, I feel local democracy has come out on top. And for that, we should all be pleased.
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RedSkem wrote...
An autumn poll would have delighted the Tories in Wrst Lancs.
The turnout in Skem would have been dismal on a grim night in Nov. Would you venture out after dark in Skem if you didn't rellay need to?
At the same time the tories would've have been dragging little old ladies into cars and ferrying them to polling stations in vilage halls.
With Rosie Cooper hiding her talenst at the moment it could 've closeed the gap and evenm let the Torise back in.
I think its places lik3 Skem that Brown was thinking of when he deioded to hold off...if he was really thiking about it in the first place which I doubt.
Wait in the wings for ten year and then risk it all on a snap poll?? Naaahh,. mate.
Posted by: RedSkem | October 14, 2007 11:41 AM