THE way Labour is completely falling apart before its very eyes is leading me ever more to believe that the next election will be like the 1992 contest, only with a role-reversal.
If it carries on much longer, we'll probably have a government clinging onto power and an Opposition looking more credible by the day - just like 15 years ago.
But it;s quite possible that again, as in 1992, the Opposition will go into battle ahead in the polls... only to be scuppered at the last minute by a fickle public who think it's better the devil you know.
Much like the Conservatives' time at number 10, we can equate Labour's successes in 1997, 2001 and 2005 with the Tory truimphs of 1979, 1983 and 1987. But by the fourth election, things were looking decidedly less comfortable.
The similarities are uncanny:
- Ruling party gets rid of a leader who's known throughout the world and replaced by someone less 'flashy'
- A question over sleaze starts rearing its head
- The government starts being controlled by events, rather than them setting the agenda
- Mutterings about "maybe it's time for a change" start growing louder
- The press starts turning on the government
- The England football team is rubbish (actually, that could be the same for any year since 1966)
For my money, I reckon the next general election will be the closest we've had since 1992 when, incidentally, West Lancashire dumped the then MP Ken Hind (a member of the ruling Conservative Party) and replaced them with an Opposition candidate (Colin Pickthall).
Now, I'm not a superstitious man but you've got to ask yourself; is history about to repeat itself?
- Post to:
del.icio.us
Digg
Newsvine
Nowpublic
Reddit
« Previous | Home | Next »
Bill Givens wrote...
I agree that Labour is falling apart and the next General Election may be a close call. However looking at the opinion polls and the rise in fortunes of the Conservative Party a Prime Minister Cameron may be what the electorate wants rather than a battered Brown and a party of ‘bean counters’ with failed targets losing credibility month by month. The wider issues concerning the electorate - from Iraq, Immigration, failure to hold referendum on Europe, mismanagement and sheer incompetence in many areas of public service etc are turning people off New Labour.
The 'whiter than white' pledge and promises made by two Labour Leaders has proved to be insincere and again demonstrates a failure to govern with integrity and manage with high standards.
On a local level as a contributor to the campaign to save Ormskirk, Hettinga Hospice I was very impressed with the drive and determination demonstrated by Adrian Owens, Conservative Candidate in his efforts to prevent closure. I was not impressed with the low profile, demonstrated by local Labour representatives in the fight to protect hospice services for future generations.
Rosie Cooper MP during the six month hospice campaign, to the best of my knowledge and that of nursing staff at Hettinga did not visit to meet the Ormskirk team to offer support. Nor did she adequately publicly demonstrate her determination to retain the hospice for West Lancashire Constituents. She may say she worked behind the scenes, but in my mind and others I talked to, the lack of a profile and public drive by local MP to prevent closure was disappointing to say the least. The hospice is now lost. Why the local MP could find time for visiting Ashworth Hospital, opening up a local beauty salon etc, etc as per media photos but not visit/campaign with the hospice staff is beyond me and many others.
Her Labour colleague MP and Minister Hazel Blears at least found the time this year to support/demonstrate outside her local hospital against loss of services. Rosie Cooper MP can it seems find time to visit Brazil for a week to review tree felling in the Amazon and research climate change etc. But to protect local services for the care of the dying did not merit such time commitment it seems.
As disillusioned ex New Labour I share a view that Labour has lost its way and time for a change is required both locally and for the country as a whole. I also believe that Adrian Owens has shown both in the Council and as an activist in the hospice campaign etc that he is passionate about serving the local community. This passion is backed up with the commitment and skills to deliver. The next election may as forecast be a close call, but I know who I would like to see win the seat.
If Adrian did win, and I hope he does, it would give Rosie more time to visit rain forests and research climate change perhaps.
Posted by: Bill Givens | December 4, 2007 2:06 PM