IN the absence of any local or even national politics in recent days, I've been following the US elections.
Now let me make it clear I know sod all about American politics except that there's Republicans and Democrats and they have something called the House of Representatives (or is it Congress?)
The thing I do know is that come November I'm betting that Hillary Clinton, the well-groomed missus of Arkanasas' most famous cigar loving politician, is sitting in her hubby's old chair at the Oval Office.
I've been impressed with Barack Obama but despite all of rhetoric about being the Land of Opportunity, America hasn't exactly come across as a country where the underdog emerges victorious (they save that for Hollywood, Rocky being a case in point). And also, a country which elects George W. Bush twice hardly has much sentiment, does it?
I reckon Hillary will win for the following reasons:
1) She appeals to both the left and the more moderate right wingers
2) Her closest opponent, Obama, is too inexperienced
3) Everyone wants to see Bill Clinton back at the White House, even if it's just to make tired and crude jokes
4) The best Republican, Rudy Gulliani, will not even make it to the final two
Am I right?
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Alex wrote...
David
1. Clinton is the most divisive of all the front running democratic candidates. She will take most of here party, but the rupublicans hate her, and will mobilise against her.
2. True. but with the primary season much shorter than usual, a couple of wins can gain you the momentum to go on and win the nomination.
3. He is a bit like the good old Duke of Edinburgh. Always good for a laugh.
4. Gulliani will win the primaries in New York, Florida and California. He is campaigning in the key states that will win him the electoral college votes to take the nomination. He is not bothering about states with 5 votes as he can’t win them, and will win on super Tuesday (19 states vote that date). He also does not need early wins to boost finances as he has a big war chest
Posted by: Alex | January 7, 2008 10:41 AM